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The FAO says the world has just six months left to avoid a global food crisis

For the agency, the decisions governments and farmers make now on fertiliser use, imports, funding, and crop selection, will be critical.

31 May 2026

Between the energy crisis and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world may have only six months left to prepare for a food crisis that could send global food prices soaring, according to the FAO’s latest report.

For the UN agency, the decisions being made right now, by governments and farmers alike, will prove decisive: how fertilisers are used, which crops are prioritised, how imports are managed, and where public funding is directed.

The FAO has also urged governments to identify alternative trade routes capable of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of what ultimately comes out of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, while avoiding export restrictions and protecting humanitarian food flows from future trade barriers.

The effects, however, are already here.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international commodity prices, rose again in April for the third consecutive month.

According to the agency, the shock will unfold in waves: first energy, then fertilisers, then seeds, followed by weaker harvests, rising commodity prices, and finally food inflation reaching consumers directly.

As always, the countries likely to suffer the harshest consequences will be the poorest nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, many of which remain heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilisers imported from the Middle East, an essential component for regenerating soil and maintaining agricultural productivity.

As Politico noted, the FAO warning arrived just one day after the European Commission unveiled its long-awaited fertiliser action plan, the proposal Europe’s agricultural sector had pinned its hopes on for months.

Instead, the plan focuses largely on structural, long-term measures: manure recycling, the reuse of agricultural waste, and circular-economy models applied to nitrogen production.

What the plan carefully avoids are the measures that could have had an immediate effect on costs: suspending tariffs on fertiliser imports from Russia and Belarus, or freezing the EU’s carbon border tax.

Politically, those are far riskier decisions.

But with the prospect of a global food crisis looming, they may also be exactly what is needed.

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